NBL Playoff Race Tightens: Kings, 36ers, and Phoenix Battle at the Top as Finals Loom

When was the last time the NBL finals race was this congested with this few rounds remaining? The answer may well be: never to this degree.

The Sydney Kings, Adelaide 36ers, and South East Melbourne Phoenix are locked in a three-way contest at the summit of the 2025-26 NBL ladder, and the margins separating them are razor-thin. With the competition approaching its final stretch before the Finals Series begins in March, every remaining game carries genuine consequence — a single loss could mean the difference between a home semi-final and the play-in round.

Three Contenders, One Prize

The Kings have been the form team of the past month. Their back-to-back demolitions of the Illawarra Hawks (120-94) and Perth Wildcats (102-84) signalled that Sydney’s mid-season surge is built on substance rather than circumstance. Averaging over 110 points across those two performances, the Kings’ offensive system has clicked into a rhythm that opponents are struggling to contain. Their transition game, in particular, has become a weapon — generating easy baskets before defences can set.

Adelaide’s acquisition of five-time MVP Bryce Cotton from Perth was designed precisely for this phase of the season. Cotton’s scoring gravity warps opposition defensive schemes, creating space for his teammates in ways that do not always register in his personal stat line. The 36ers’ 87-76 victory over Melbourne United demonstrated the kind of grit and defensive resolve that championship teams require when the offence is not flowing freely.

The Phoenix, meanwhile, have been the season’s quiet achievers. Their 120-104 dismantling of the Tasmania JackJumpers showcased an offensive arsenal that matches anyone in the league when fully engaged. Depth has been their distinguishing feature — contributions from across the roster rather than dependence on one or two individuals.

Illawarra’s Inconsistency Problem

The Illawarra Hawks present a fascinating case study in variance. Defending champions. Capable of hammering Tasmania 103-70 in one outing and then losing to the Kings by 26 in another. That 33-point swing across two games encapsulates the Hawks’ central challenge: they possess the talent to beat anyone but lack the consistency to sustain it across consecutive performances.

But until the Hawks eliminate the lows that punctuate their highs, they remain a dangerous but unreliable finals proposition.

Understanding the 2026 Finals Structure

The NBL’s finals format rewards consistency throughout the regular season. Three play-in games open the post-season, followed by two best-of-three semi-finals and a best-of-five Championship Series. The structure means that finishing higher on the ladder provides tangible advantages — fewer games to reach the final, home-court advantage in the series that matters most.

For the Kings, 36ers, and Phoenix, securing a top-two finish is not merely a matter of pride. It is a structural advantage that could prove decisive across a gruelling March and April schedule. The play-in round is designed to be volatile — single-game elimination scenarios where form is secondary to fortune. Avoiding that gauntlet is the strategic imperative for every contender.

The Tightest Race in Years

What makes this finals race exceptional is not just the proximity of the top teams on the ladder but the quality of basketball each is producing. The Kings are scoring at a historic clip. The 36ers have the league’s most dangerous individual scorer. The Phoenix have the deepest rotation. Each possesses a genuine pathway to the championship.

The remaining regular-season rounds will determine whether those pathways converge in a Championship Series worthy of the competition’s growing profile — the kind of unpredictable finish that feels more like spinning the best pokies online than reading a form guide — or whether one contender separates from the pack before the post-season even begins.

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AK — Senior tactical analyst, australiafootball.com