England line up as firm favourites when they face Croatia in Group L of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with both nations fully aware that a slow start in a competitive group can quickly become a difficult hole to climb out of. These two sides met in memorable fashion at both Euro 2020 (England’s group-stage win) and the 2018 World Cup semi-final (Croatia’s extra-time victory), lending a genuine edge to what is, on paper, a heavyweight opener. The side that takes three points here sets the tone for the rest of the tournament schedule.
Team form & news
England arrive at AT&T Stadium in Dallas as one of the tournament’s genuine contenders. Under their current setup, the Three Lions boast elite depth across the attacking third, with a generation of Premier League stars now entering peak years. Their qualifying campaign was solid and defensively they conceded sparingly throughout. Expect a back four built around experienced centre-halves, with an energetic midfield tasked with controlling tempo rather than chasing games.
Croatia, meanwhile, are navigating something of a generational transition. The Luka Modrić era has defined this program for the better part of a decade, and while the Real Madrid veteran continues to defy time, Croatia’s supporting cast carries more questions than it did at the last two World Cups. Their qualifying form was functional without being convincing — enough to make the tournament but not the kind of run that demands widespread fear.
Neither side had significant confirmed injury absences publicly reported at the time of writing. Lineup expectations point to England setting up in a structured 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1, with Croatia likely to sit compact and look to exploit transitions. Team news will firm up in the 24 hours prior to kickoff — check our World Cup odds page for live updates as they land.
How the market sees it
The consensus market (h2h, AU books — 12 bookmakers) paints a clear picture:
England win: 1.72 (implied 58.1%) Draw: 3.61 (implied 27.7%) Croatia win: 4.97 (implied 20.1%)
England are comfortably the favourite — the 1.72 line implies a shade over 58% chance of a win, which is a meaningful but not overwhelming edge. The 38-point gap in implied probability between the two sides (58.1% vs 20.1%) tells you the market is confident about England without treating this as a foregone conclusion.
For Croatia to cause the upset at 4.97, several things need to align: they would need to stay disciplined defensively for long stretches, convert one of what would likely be limited counter-attacking opportunities, and benefit from England having an off night in front of goal — a scenario that is entirely plausible given England’s historical tendency toward ponderous performances in tournament openers.
The draw at 3.61 is the market’s second most likely outcome, which reflects how often Croatia have made themselves hard to beat at major tournaments. A 0-0 or 1-1 after ninety minutes is not a remote possibility — it has form behind it.
Calibrated prediction: England to win, with a scoreline most likely in the 1-0 to 2-1 range. A draw cannot be dismissed.
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Best value angle
Two markets stand out as worth exploring here, without speculating on prices.
Under 2.5 goals has a reasonable foundation given the context: tournament openers, particularly when one side is a heavy favourite and the other is built around defensive discipline, tend to be cautious affairs. Croatia’s transition-era squad is more likely to park and probe than open the game up, and England historically take time to find their rhythm in the first match of a major tournament.
England to win to nil is the second angle. England’s defensive structure has been notably improved, and a Croatia attack still finding its feet without a dominant creative hub may struggle to genuinely test the goalkeeper. Both markets are worth comparing across books before kick off — prices vary meaningfully from site to site.
How to watch in Australia
England vs Croatia kicks off at 6:00am AEST on Thursday 18 June from AT&T Stadium in Dallas. Coverage is expected to be available via Australian free-to-air and streaming broadcasters holding FIFA World Cup 2026 rights — confirm listings with your provider closer to the date.
Compare every market on our World Cup 2026 odds page or browse the full best Australian sportsbooks list.
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