🇪🇸 Spain — World Cup 2026 Odds

Tournament favourites — and the reason why

Spain head to North America as the clear market favourites, priced at 5.50 across our partner Tenobet and four of six reference books in our captured sample. The case is straightforward: Luis de la Fuente’s side won Euro 2024 in Berlin, qualified for WC 2026 without dropping a point, and the spine of that Euro-winning side — Lamine Yamal, Pedri, Rodri, Nico Williams, Aymeric Laporte — remains intact and one year more seasoned.

The Yamal injury watch

The single biggest risk to Spain’s favourite status: Lamine Yamal tore a hamstring on 22 April 2026 taking a penalty in Barcelona’s 1-0 win over Celta Vigo. He was ruled out of the rest of the 2025-26 La Liga campaign. Spain and Barcelona reached a handling agreement that Yamal will miss Spain’s first two group games against Saudi Arabia and Uruguay unless he is 100% fit; 27 June vs Cape Verde is the earliest realistic debut. Markets have absorbed this — Spain’s price did not lengthen materially.

Group H path

Spain are 1.08 to win at home against Cape Verde, 1.08 against Saudi Arabia, and 5.10 (third favourite vs Uruguay) for the trickiest fixture on paper. Tenobet prices Spain to top Group H at well under even money. The realistic risk in the group: Uruguay (Marcelo Bielsa-coached, Federico Valverde-led) on 27 June with Yamal possibly still out.

Key markets to watch

• Outright winner at 5.50 — implied 18.2% (see main odds page)
• Top goalscorer: Mikel Oyarzabal 15.00 + Lamine Yamal 17.00 + Mikel Merino 34.00 at Gambiva (3 of Gambiva’s top 20)
• Spain to win the group — short-priced; alternative is a no-Yamal-needed angle vs. Cape Verde + Saudi Arabia

What our model flags

The 5.50 line implies a roughly 1-in-5.5 chance of winning the trophy. With Yamal possibly limited in the group stage, a Spain side that survives Uruguay healthy is the highest-value path — and the price for “Spain reaches the final” markets at our partner brands sits near 2.50, the shortest in our captured sample.